Population Flow Projections

Critical to any CCRC’s financial projections are assumptions about independent living turnover (attrition), apartment density ratio (number of second persons in units over time), and usage of healthcare services (e.g., assisted living or nursing care) by continuing care contractholders. These assumptions have dependent relationships that must be consistent if the resulting projections are to be credible and reliable. As the pioneer in the application of actuarial science to CCRCs, A.V. POWELL & ASSOCIATES has accumulated the largest database on CCRC resident demographics and usage of healthcare services. By applying information from this unique database, we help define assumptions for feasibility studies for unrated bond financings as well as generate actuarially based population projections to assist our clients in anticipating long-term care needs.